Excerpts from previous political updates, by subject:

8-2-02

Prelude to war?

Meanwhile, Saddam was trying to do what he could to prepare for the onslaught. In mid-July, he got the Iraqi parliament to approve military preparations and promised to repel any invasion. At the end of July, he threatened to punish economically any country that supported U.S. military action. At virtually the same time, however, he was reported by the Post to be courting Oman and Qatar (possible launch pads for U.S. military strikes), to be making friendly overtures to Kuwait, and increasing his public declarations of support for the Palestinians. In addition, he continued his effort to get U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to negotiate terms for renewed U.N. inspections. In July, after three fruitless meetings with Saddam's representative, Annan declared that there was nothing more to talk about unless Iraq changed its position. On August 1, Iraq suddenly invited the inspectors back to Baghdad for talks, hinting that some movement might be in the works.

These efforts followed a successful foray at the meeting of the Arab League in March. Iraq persuaded the league to condemn "the threat of an aggression on some Arab countries, particularly Iraq," and declared that such aggression would be considered "a threat to the national security of all the Arab states." At the meeting, Iraq smoothed the way by promising not to re- invade Kuwait, to recognize Kuwait's sovereignty, and to work with the United Nations, although Iraq claimed that it had already fulfilled its U.N. obligations. Iraq also scored a second diplomatic victory at the meeting by concluding a non-aggression agreement with Kuwait that called for the lifting of U.N. sanctions.

Despite Saddam's efforts, the momentum for war continues to build. On July 17 the Financial Times reported that large numbers of U.S. soldiers had already been sent to the Gulf region, and that Britain had begun recalling troops from the Balkans and Afghanistan to train as part of the invasion force.

Before any shooting starts, however, more of a case will have to be made to the American public and nervous allies that Saddam is an acute threat. That is a point upon which all the talking heads – and the Bush administration – agree. At the end of July, French and German leaders warned that any military offensive would require explicit U.N. approval. Russia said that Iraq's fate should be decided peacefully, and Jordan reiterated its opposition to war. Turkey continued to try to dissuade Washington from launching an offensive in which it would be involved.

Back in March, it appeared that British Prime Minister Tony Blair's government was ready to make a public case for action. Blair's government had built a dossier on Iraq that Blair planned to present to President Bush when they met in April. The dossier was said to prove that Iraq had developed nuclear armaments beyond the blueprint stage, that it already possessed other unconventional weapons, and was actively supporting terrorism –– possibly including Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. In light of the perilous situation in Palestine, however, Blair scrapped the plan to release it.

Inspections

By August 2000, Mr. Blix was poised to report that 44 of his inspectors had completed training and were "in a position to start activities in Iraq" including "baseline" inspections of facilities that might be involved in building prohibited weapons. To avoid a confrontation with Baghdad, however, the Security Council persuaded Blix to report only that UNMOVIC "could plan and commence a number of activities in Iraq which would be necessary to prepare" for monitoring and inspection.