Excerpts from previous political updates, by subject:

4-12-02

Striking Iraq?

While action against Iraq remains on hold while the Bush administration faces the Arab-Israeli crisis, it was reported as recently as mid-March that military units were busy preparing for a strike, taking such steps as updating contingency plans, checking readiness and making inventories of their munitions. The US administration is reported to have said in February 2002 that it wants to oust Saddam Hussein before the end of President Bush's first term in 2005. Several options appear to be under consideration. In addition to the "Afghan model" (an indigenous opposition army combined with US air power) reportedly touted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, other options include sending in a sizable US ground force (reportedly favored by the Joint Chiefs and US Central Command) or fomenting a military coup (reportedly the CIA's choice). In recent days, it has been reported that the second option is winning out. The notion of sending some 70,000 to 250,000 troops to Iraq has circulated in the press, which postulates that any move will likely be delayed until early 2003 to avoid summer combat in chemical suits, prepare for a global oil price shock and make progress toward ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There is also reported talk of relying on bases in Turkey, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, as well as a Qatari air operations center, in order to compensate for the possible denial of Saudi bases.

Oil-for-food - or arms?

Iraq's revenues from oil sales have been decreasing, and Iraq's decision to suspend its oil sales for 30 days, effective April 8, in response to Israel's military incursion into Palestinian-controlled territory, will decrease revenues even further. The suspension is estimated to produce a $1.3 billion loss in revenue in the current phase of the oil-for food program.

Iraq's purchases from the oil-for-food account are now controlled by the UN's Office of the Iraq Program, but under UN Resolution 1284, broad categories of items have been cleared for sale to Iraq without specific review by a fifteen-nation sanctions committee established in 1990 under UN Resolution 661. The categories exempt from review include agricultural equipment, medical equipment, oil equipment and spare parts, water and sanitation equipment, housing supplies and electrical equipment. The Council refused to exempt telecommunications and transportation equipment. Items that do not fall into the exempt categories must be approved by the sanctions committee.

More on the US-UK sanctions plan

Under a plan put forth by the United States and the United Kingdom in May 2001, all military items would still be prohibited to Iraq, but all civilian and dual-use goods not on the GRL would be free to go. Planned sales contracts would still have to be submitted to the UN Office of the Iraq Program (UNOIP), which would determine whether any item in the contract were barred or listed on the GRL. The GRL would be reviewed regularly, and updated pursuant to recommendations from the UNOIP, from the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, or from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The plan also called for UN-observed inspections of the cargo of all non-Iraqi civilian flights destined to land in or take off from Iraq.

Action on Iraq?

In the meantime, the US government has decided to finance and host a conference of ex-officers of the Iraqi military and security forces this spring. The group will apparently focus on planning the overthrow of Saddam, according to both US and Iraqi National Congress officials. The conference will include some 200 opposition members who are to discuss both ousting Saddam and the future of Iraq after he is gone. When the meeting was announced, INC Chairman Ahmed Chalabi reportedly said his group was prepared to fight, needing just eleven weeks of training, as well as US arms and intelligence.

UNMOVIC

In addition to its other innovations, UNMOVIC requires inspectors to undergo training on Iraqi cultural sensitivities. To this end, 44 persons were trained in New York between July 11 and August 10, 2000. Training included both weapon- and inspection-specific courses and cultural training in "regional, social and religious themes." Additional courses were held November 7 to December 8, 2000, February 19 to March 23, 2001, June 2001, and from 18 February to 22 March 2002. Most of the newly trained weapons specialists were sent home, and their names put on a roster for future service.