Excerpts from previous political updates, by subject:

March 17, 2003

The End of diplomacy in Iraq

Declaring that the "moment of truth" had come for Iraq, President George W. Bush chose March 17 as the day when America's diplomatic efforts would end in the U.N. Security Council and when Saddam Hussein and his sons would be given 48 hours to leave Iraq or face military conflict. Bush asserted that inaction was riskier than action, and that the United Nations had "not lived up to its responsibilities," which America would now assume. He also appealed to Iraqi civilians and troops, telling them it is not too late for them to "act with honor" by refusing to resist allied troops, use mass destruction weapons, or lay waste to Iraqi oil fields. Saddam quickly rejected the ultimatum.

Earlier the same day, the United States, Britain and Spain withdrew their proposed compromise resolution from the U.N. Security Council. The French government condemned the decision to threaten war as unjustified and dangerous, while Russia called any war a "mistake." British Prime Minister Tony Blair was slapped with the resignation of a high level Cabinet member and other more junior ministers in protest. The U.S. Congress, despite some scattered opposition, rallied around U.S. troops once war began. Congress had approved military action in October 2002.

These decisions to end diplomacy were taken against the background of more than four months of resumed inspections. On March 7, chief inspector Hans Blix provided the U.N. Security Council with his latest report on Iraq's cooperation with inspection teams. Blix concluded that Iraqi compliance had been neither immediate, complete, nor entirely unconditional - as required by Resolution 1441. However, he also said that Iraq's cooperation had been better recently and that Iraq was achieving "substantive" disarmament by destroying a number of short-range missiles. Blix also submitted 173 pages of "open questions" that remain about Iraq's weapon programs.

Blix had raised the pressure on the Iraqi military by ordering Iraq to begin destroying a short-range missile system known as the Al Samoud II. A panel of experts found that the missile's range exceeded the 150 km (93 mile) limit set by U.N. resolutions. Iraq began destruction on March 1, and had destroyed some 61 missiles by March 14. Iraq also destroyed two proscribed casting chambers for making missile engines, some five proscribed rocket engines, 35 missile warheads and a rocket launcher, all under U.N. supervision, and promised to submit a report on its alleged unilateral destruction of anthrax and VX nerve agent within the week. These "proactive" steps were welcomed by Blix, who warned it would take time to verify information in documents, even with full Iraqi cooperation.

In a parallel report to the Security Council, Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, announced once again that he had found no evidence of an active Iraqi nuclear program at sites his teams had inspected. ElBaradei also attacked much of the evidence presented in recent months by the American and British governments to make the case that Iraq was actively importing items to make nuclear arms.

As these diplomatic developments unfolded, the press reported that U.S. troop strength in the Persian Gulf had reached some 250,000 to 300,000, the number called for in war plans. Saudi Arabia granted the U.S. military the use of its air bases for command and control, refueling and defensive strike aircraft, but Turkey's parliament rejected a government proposal to receive some 60,000 U.S. troops that would invade Iraq from the north. In mid-March, Turkey's government chose not to have another vote, forcing the United States to opt for airlifting a smaller contingent of troops into Iraq to open a northern front. The Turkish Parliament did decide to allow U.S. planes the use of its airspace but has indicated there will be no access to airbases such as Incirlik, even for refueling and support missions.

Oil smuggling

Despite the lack of any legal limit on the amount of oil Iraq can sell under U.N. supervision, smuggling has remained an important issue. On May 28, 2002, the British intercepted 3,100 tons of illegal Iraqi fuel oil on a ship at sea, and in mid-November 2001, a tanker (the Samra) suspected of smuggling Iraqi oil sank during an inspection at sea, killing two U.S. sailors and part of the ship's Iraqi crew. Three weeks before that, Iraq was caught smuggling $10 million worth of oil using a technique in which additional oil is pumped on board a tanker after U.N. oil inspectors leave.

Syria's reopened pipeline from Iraq emerged as a major concern in the spring of 2001. Reports (denied by Iraq and Syria) suggest that the flow of Iraqi oil in the pipeline has risen from 150,000 barrels per day to some 250,000. The lower figure ?? 150,000 barrels ?? was estimated to be worth $2 to $3 million per day outside UN-controlled accounts, so 250,000 barrels could earn Iraq up to $5 million a day in illicit, unmonitored oil revenues. These reports also quote the Syrian oil minister as saying that a second oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria is planned. It has also been reported that Jordan is considering bids for a new pipeline from Iraq that could be working by October 2004. It would carry 100,000 to 350,000 barrels per day.

In addition to the Syrian pipeline, an estimated 40,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil and diesel fuel are smuggled daily by truck through Turkey. In total, Iraq could now be earning between $2 and $3 billion a year from illicit oil transfers.