Excerpts from previous political updates, by subject:

12-02

War plans leaked

In mid-December, the Bush administration was reported by the press to be preparing a case, which it would present to the U.N. Security Council in late January, that Iraq had materially violated U.N. resolution 1441. At that point, according to the press, the United States could call for the use of force. In the meantime, the United States has selected some 1,000 Iraqi exiles for military training by the U.S. Army. The recruits could help the U.S. military with logistics, translations, and serve as guides in the event of a war in Iraq. The first group of these recruits were called up in mid-January, and training is slated to begin in early February.

Details of war plans also continued to emerge in the media. In November, a so-called official war plan was leaked to the Washington Post. It called for a rapid strike from the north (to protect opposition Kurds and create safe channels of entry for more troops), from the west (to hunt down Scuds and drones that might be launched at Israel) and from the south (to take strategic airstrips and protect opposition Shiites). The plan also called for going all the way to Baghdad using air and land forces simultaneously to soften regime and mass destruction weapon targets, as well as psychological warfare to encourage an indigenous revolt. The plan is centered around a small number of troops, but included some 150,000 backup ground troops to help if Iraqi resistance is greater than expected.

Earlier in the fall, Pentagon war planners were cited as saying that the United States was likely to launch an intense attack focused narrowly on Saddam Hussein and the institutions that keep him in power. Rather than a weeks-long bombing campaign followed by a ground attack, as happened in 1991, the two would occur nearly simultaneously. And to discourage Iraqi use of chemical or biological weapons, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld warned publicly that any Iraqi personnel that did so "are not going to have a happy future."

These reports of war plans followed earlier accounts to the same effect. On July 5, the New York Times had revealed that a highly classified American military planning document, entitled "CentCom Courses of Action," called for a coordinated attack on Iraq by air, land and sea, using forces from the north, south and west. Tens of thousands of U.S. troops would be deployed. Iraq would receive a massive air attack by planes based in as many as eight nearby countries and a ground attack probably coming through Kuwait. Special forces and teams from the C.I.A. would try to take out Saddam Hussein's mass destruction weapon potential. The Times said that although the planning document was only a preliminary concept for a war against Iraq, the plan was highly evolved and apparently working its way through military channels.

Other plans, or "scenarios," have also marched into print. As distinguished from a full-up military invasion requiring some 250,000 troops, a more limited attack, using far fewer troops, has been discussed. On July 29, the Times reported that the Bush administration was considering a plan that would first take Baghdad and one or two key command centers and weapon depots. The hope would be to cut off the country's leadership and cause resistance to collapse. The effects of this strike would begin in Baghdad and then radiate outward, perhaps making it unnecessary to use large numbers of U.S. troops to fight Iraqi Army units. Another version of this "inside-out" strategy was reported in the Washington Post on August 1. Civilian authorities in the Pentagon were said to favor a quick sprint by an armored column from Kuwait to Baghdad. This might prevent Saddam Hussein from deploying chemical-armed artillery or hiding his military forces in cities. The Post said that this second scenario was being forcefully opposed by the Pentagon brass, who favor all-out attack. While the Post story was still on the newsstands,CNN reported that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had asked Pentagon planners to submit options for a "lightening-quick" attack on Iraq that he could present to the president within the coming weeks.

The C.I.A. and U.S. Special Forces would be the main actors in a third scenario, in which the United States would foment an internal revolt against Saddam. The Post reported on June 16 that President Bush had signed an intelligence order directing the C.I.A. to launch a comprehensive, covert effort to topple the Iraqi leader. The C.I.A. was directed to use all available tools to achieve its goal, including Special Forces. The Post even reported that the Special Forces were authorized to kill Saddam if they were acting "in self defense."

On October 10, the administration also shed light on its plans for the post-war, post-Saddam administration of Iraq. According to the Washington Post, a potentially lengthy military occupation is being contemplated. During a first phase, U.S. military authorities would maintain order and the territorial integrity of Iraq, as well as track and dismantle Saddam Hussein's WMD programs. A civilian occupation would be the second phase, during which civil institutions would be developed, the power of the Ba'ath Party reduced, and war crimes trials for Hussein and his inner circle pursued. This scheme is a blow to the ambitions of the Iraqi National Congress and other opposition exiles, who would only have a possible advisory role to play until the occupation authorities determined that elections could be held to set up an indigenous government in a third post-Saddam Hussein phase of governance.