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Excerpts from previous political updates, by subject:
1-14-02
Will Iraq be "Phase 2"?
In the wake of the September 11 attacks on America and the largely successful and rapid campaign against the Taliban, attention has refocused on Iraq as a potential "phase two" in the war on terrorism. The policy debate is whether to take the war to Iraq next, and if so, how to do it. Other possibilities include Somalia or Yemen.
In late December 2001, Secretary of State Colin Powell was maintaining a cautious stance, warning that military success in Afghanistan is not necessarily a model for removing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, as Iraq's military is much stronger than the Taliban's and the Iraqi opposition is not comparable to the Afghani Northern Alliance. Mr. Powell warned that "they are so significantly different that you can't take the Afghan model and apply it to Iraq." However, it has also been reported that Pentagon staff under Douglas Feith, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, have been discussing a plan for Iraq that would look much like the Afghan model, including air strikes, special operations forces, and indigenous opposition armies to do most of the fighting. While no decision to strike Iraq has been officially taken, the military is updating its list of Iraqi targets, and more than 20,000 American troops were reportedly moved into Qatar and Kuwait. The Pentagon claims these are only normal troop rotations.
U.S. rhetoric has also been escalating in recent weeks. In mid-November, National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice assured reporters that "We'll deal with that situation [Iraq] eventually." At the end of November, President George W. Bush warned that if Saddam Hussein refused to let inspectors return, "he'll find out" what would happen. Some days later, when asked if Iraq was the next target in the war on terrorism, he replied somewhat cryptically that, "if you develop weapons of mass destruction that you want to terrorize the world, you'll be held accountable," which Secretary of State Colin Powell called "a very sober, chilling message" to the Iraqis. Then Vice President Richard B. Cheney told Fox news in December that "if I were Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, I'd be thinking very carefully about the future, and I'd be looking very closely to see what happened to the Taliban in Afghanistan." Even the more cautious Mr. Powell told NBC in mid-December that efforts to destabilize Hussein were ongoing, including the recent US delegation sent to northern Iraq to talk to Kurdish leaders. When asked by NBC's Tim Russert if the administration would use the money appropriated by Congress for the Iraqi opposition in such a way as to help foment a revolution, Mr. Powell responded, "we're continuing to examine feasibility of such options." Recent problems with the opposition's use of US funds aside, this is an important message from the usually circumspect State Department.
A new policy direction may have been signaled, however, by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz on January 7. Mr. Wolfowitz pointed to Somalia as a likely next target of America's military, and also mentioned steps that could be taken in Yemen, Indonesia and the Philippines. In other words, the United States might put off dealing with Iraq, tackling less contentious targets first.
There have been grave questions about the degree of international support for a military move against Iraq. Both Russia and the United Nations have warned against military action, as have Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Turkey has also expressed qualms and even Britain does not seem thrilled to go forth accompanied only by the United States. Russian President Vladimir Putin has specified that he expects to be consulted before the antiterror campaign moves to Iraq; Germany and Egypt have cautioned that an attack on Iraq would not receive the support the war in Afghanistan has. Similarly, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan warned that to expand the war to Iraq would be "unwise" and might cause "a major escalation in the region." Saudi Arabia's former head of intelligence pointed out that his country would "absolutely not" allow US military planes to operate from Saudi air bases. Yet, though Turkey was not initially behind a move against Iraq, in late December a Turkish official signaled a change when he said that Turkey's "concern is not a war against Iraq, but an exit strategy after the war." In other words, a committed America with a plan for prosecuting and completing its goals in Iraq might find a Turkish ally - an important possibility in light of US military assets at Turkish air bases like Incirlik. Yet even America's staunch ally Britain has been circumspect of late, with Prime Minister Tony Blair avoiding an announcement on whether the UK would take part in an attack on Iraq.
Alleged links to terrorism
There have been several reports of meetings between the September 11 terrorists and Iraqi agents. It has been reported that in early June 2000, an Iraqi intelligence official met secretly in Prague with Mohamed Atta, one of the hijackers on the first flight to hit the World Trade Center. The Czech interior minister confirmed another meeting in Prague between Atta and Iraqi agent Ahmed Khalil Ibrahim Samir al-Ani five months prior to the attack. And senior US intelligence sources were cited as saying that in the spring of 2001, at least two members of al-Qaeda's September 11 hijacking team other than Atta also met known Iraqi intelligence agents outside the United States. Other press reports have linked Osama bin Laden to the Iraqi government in the days just prior to the attacks, as well as the years leading up to them and the days since. The Pentagon is also reported to have a special unit sifting through years of intelligence reports to look for a connection between al Qaeda and other international terrorists supported by Iraq to justify extending the war on terrorism to Saddam Hussein.
In the meantime, two Iraqi defectors have described a terrorist training camp at Salman Pak, where students practiced taking over a Boeing 707 - the same type of plane used in the terrorist attacks on America. Charles Duelfer, former Deputy Director of UNSCOM, confirmed that during inspection visits to Salman Pak, he had seen the 707 exactly where the defectors said it was. He said the Iraqis claimed the camp and plane were used for counter-terrorist training, but that inspectors "automatically took out the word 'counter'."
Before the Gulf war, Salman Pak was among Iraq's premier biological weapon sites, and it is reported to be again working on BW under a German national's tutelage.
The no-fly zones
Iraq has continued to actively oppose US flights over its territory. In late August 2001, an unmanned US Air Force reconnaissance plane (an RQ-1 Predator) was lost over southern Iraq, possibly downed by Iraqi antiaircraft fire. This was the first fixed-wing aircraft loss for the United States in ten years of enforcing the "no-fly zones" over Iraq. Iraq vowed to shoot down more US planes. It may have succeeded in early September: the official Iraqi News Agency said Iraq shot down a second American reconnaissance plane, and the Pentagon confirmed it had lost contact with a drone over the southern no-fly zone. And again in October, a third American Predator disappeared over southern Iraq, according to Pentagon officials, who said the aircraft may have crashed or been shot down. Iraq claimed the latter.
Telecommunications -- dual-use technology
In a related development, Iraq reported on September 5 that China's Huawei Technology - the firm accused by the United States of helping Iraq improve its air defenses by installing fiber optics - had pulled out of a $28 million deal to improve Iraq's mobile telephone network. Huawei's reasons were "unknown." The United States had released its "hold" on the deal at the United Nations as part of more than $80 million in Chinese contracts with Iraq released in June as the United States sought China's support for the US policy of "smart sanctions."
Just before the announcement of Huawei's pull-out, the United States had also lifted a hold on nearly $75 million worth of telecommunications equipment Iraq hoped to buy from France's Alcatel to repair its public telephone network. The deal had been on hold for more than two years due to American concerns the equipment would be used to upgrade Iraq's weapons, but after the Chinese holds were lifted, French government and Alcatel officials approached the United States to obtain the same treatment.
A New Goods Review List?
When the UN Security Council met at the end of November, it renewed the oil-for-food plan for an additional six months, but this time the resolution contained a unique proviso: with Russian agreement, the resolution required the development of a list of dual use banned from export to Iraq, which is to be adopted May 30, 2002. The Security Council appended the beginnings of such a list to the resolution itself. Iraq's revenues are still reportedly to be controlled through a UN escrow account, but the Security Council will no longer have the right to vet Baghdad's shopping list. In return for Russian agreement to a formal Goods Review List (GRL), the United States reportedly promised to reexamine UN Resolution 1284 and the issue of suspending sanctions once Iraq cooperates with UN weapon inspectors.