LETTER FROM HANS BLIX
EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
UNITED NATIONS MONITORING, VERIFICATION AND INSPECTION COMMISSION (UNMOVIC)
TO AMIR AL-SA'ADI
ADVISOR TO IRAQI PRESIDENT SADDAM HUSSEIN

UNITED NATIONS MONITORING, VERIFICATION AND INSPECTION COMMISSION (UNMOVIC)

21 February 2003

Dr. Amir H. Al-Sa'adi
Advisor
Presidential Office
Baghdad, Iraq

Dear Dr. Al Sa'adi,

During our latest discussions in Baghdad on 9 and 10 February 2003, I informed you that a panel of international experts would be convened in New York to conduct a technical assessment of the range capabilities of Al Samoud 2 and Al Fatah missile systems. The assessment was also to include the refurbished casting chambers associated with the proscribed Badr-2000 missiles that had been destroyed under UNSCOM supervision, as well as the capability of the test stand under construction at the Al Rafah Liquid Engine Test Facility.

The panel, which met on 10 and 11 February, consisted of experts nominated by the Governments of China, France, Germany, Ukraine, United Kingdom and the United States. The Russian expert nominated was unable to attend.

UNMOVIC experts provided the panel with background information on the relevant aspects of Iraq's missile programmes and infrastructure. The panel was also advised that, in 1994, UNSCOM had informed Iraq that any increase of diameter in the design of the Ababil-100 liquid engine missile (subsequently renamed as Al Samoud) exceeding 600 millimeters was not permitted. The panel was further informed that UNMOVIC had advised Iraq, in December 2002, to cease all flight tests of the Al Samoud 2, which has a diameter of 760 millimeters, until UNMOVIC completed its technical assessment. The panel also used in its assessment the information presented by Iraq to UNMOVIC experts in Baghdad on 26 January and 10 February, as well as the results of four separate computer simulations of the ranges of the Al Samoud 2 and Al Fatah missiles. These simulations were conducted by experts from four different countries using the data declared by Iraq.

The panel was unanimous in its assessment in reaching the attached conclusions. These conclusions were presented to UNMOVIC's College of Commissioners on 13 February. On the basis of the panel's conclusions on the Al Samoud 2, which do not call for further clarification or testing,

I reported, on 14 February, to the Security Council that the two declared variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile system were capable of exceeding 150 kilometres in range, and were therefore proscribed pursuant to resolution 687 (1991) and the monitoring plan adopted by resolution 715 (1991).

Accordingly, the Government of Iraq should present to UNMOVIC for verifiable destruction all Al Samoud 2 missiles and associated items, as follows:

1. All Al Samoud 2 missiles and warheads, whether deployed, assembled or partly assembled;

2. Fuel and oxidizer, where deployed with Al Samoud 2 missiles;

3. The SA-2 missile engines imported outside of the export/import mechanism and in contravention of paragraph 24 of resolution 687 (1991), which have been configured for use in the Al Samoud 2, are in the process of being so configured, or are otherwise associated with the Al Samoud 2 missile programme;

4. All engine components acquired for the modification of the SA-2 engine for use with the Al Samoud 2 system, such as thrust regulators, gas generators and air pressure regulators;

5. All SA-2 autopilots and other guidance and control items, such as gyroscopes, accelerometers, inertial equipment and software imported or developed for use with the Al Samoud 2 system;

6. With respect to launchers, all parts of the launching mechanism that are designed for use with the Al Samoud 2 system. The basic platforms of the vehicles need not be destroyed, but will be tagged and their future use monitored;

7. Those components specific to the Al Samoud 2, which are incorporated in the logistic support vehicles, such as fuel, oxidizer, and control vehicles required for the operation of the Al Samoud 2 missile force;

8. Equipment and components designed for the production and testing of the Al Samoud 2 missile; and

9. All software and documentation concerning conception, research and development, production and quality control related to the Al Samoud 2 missile programme.

With respect to the casting chambers that had been deemed proscribed and were destroyed under UNSCOM supervision, the panel confirmed that the reconstituted casting chambers could still be used to produce motors for missiles capable of ranges significantly greater than 150 kilometres. Accordingly, these chambers remain proscribed and are to be destroyed.

The panel found that clarification of Al Fatah missile data supplied by Iraq was required before the capability of the missile system could be assessed. UNMOVIC will request such clarification.

The panel also assessed that the Al Rafah static test stand under construction would be capable of testing missile engines with thrusts greater than that of the SA-2 engine. The test stand will be monitored.

The necessary destruction is to be carried out by Iraq under UNMOVIC guidance and supervision. UNMOVIC will select from a variety of methods of destruction, depending on the items to be destroyed, such as explosive demolition, crushing, melting and other physical and chemical methods.

The appropriate arrangements should be made so that the destruction process can commence by 1 March 2003.

Yours sincerely,

Hans Blix

ATTACHMENT

Conclusions from the International Panel of Missile Experts

10 to 11 February 2003

A group of international missile experts from 6 countries, including China, France, Germany, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States, joined UNMOVIC staff to assess the inherent capabilities of Iraq's liquid propellant missile, the Al Samoud 2, and solid propellant rocket, the Al Fatah. Specifically, this group of missile experts was convened by UNMOVIC to determine if either, or both of these missiles possess the capacity to fly more than 150 kilometres. The panel of experts was also tasked to review the list of newly acquired equipment and facilities that support the production and testing of missile components, and determine if they enhance Iraq's ability to produce missiles capable of flying more than 150 kilometres.

UNMOVIC personnel began the conference by describing the two missile systems, as defined by Iraq in its Declarations to the United Nations, and providing a brief history of each system's development, testing, production and deployment. This information was then employed by the panel of experts to assess each system. Four independent computer models, each capable of calculating the range-payload properties of a missile, were used in the assessments. One of the models was calibrated, using flight test data from Iraq's Ababil 100 missile, the predecessor to the Al Samoud.

Al Samoud 2

The Al Samoud 2 is a liquid propellant missile based on the engine developed by the Soviet Union for use in the SA-2 anti-aircraft missile. The SA-2 sustainer engine's operating parameters and performance characteristics are very well understood and documented.

Iraq described two variants of the Al Samoud 2 missile in its 7 December 2002 CAFCD. The first variant, described on page 113 of the CAFCD, is the lighter of the two, weighing 1,988 kilograms. Detailed calculations and a technical rationale for increasing the missile diameter to 760-mm, from the previous 500-mm diameter for the Al Samoud 1 are provided in this section of the CAFCD, and are consistent with the configuration of the missile flight tested as declared by Iraq. A second variant is defined on pages 812 to 816 of the CAFCD. It is heavier than the first variant, weighing 2,065 kilograms. This is the configuration Iraq claims to have deployed to the Army; to date, UNMOVIC has not verified that the heavier version is the one presently deployed. The panel of experts found it contrary to normal engineering practices to deploy a system that has not been flight-tested.

Both versions of the Al Samoud 2 were evaluated using four independent computer models. Calculations, employing information declared by Iraq, show that both versions are inherently capable of flying more than 150 kilometres, the range limit as defined by UN Security Council resolutions. The lighter version of the Al Samoud 2 was determined to be capable of flying about 193 kilometres, the average range calculated by the computer models. This is consistent with the maximum range achieved as declared by Iraq (183 kilometres) during the flight test program for the Al Samoud 2. The heavier version of the Al Samoud 2, as determined by an average of the computer modelling results, is capable of achieving a range of approximately 162 kilometres.

The four independent computer models provided consistent results; all flight simulations performed during the seminar demonstrated that both variants of the Al Samoud 2 are capable of exceeding the 150-kilometre range limit. Moreover, it should be noted that the input parameters for the models relied on information declared by Iraq, even when this information was in conflict with well-documented information concerning the liquid propellant engine. For example, Iraq asserts that the mass flow rate of propellants to the engine is 15.1 kg/s, whereas the engine is designed for 15.88 kg/s. Using the lower mass flow rate reduces the performance capabilities of the engine.

Al Fatah

The Al Fatah is a solid propellant rocket currently being developed by Iraq, although 32 missiles have already been deployed to the Army. Four independent computer models were used in an attempt to assess the performance characteristics of the Al Fatah. The configuration of the Al Fatah is defined on pages 817 to 821 of the CAFCD. The models all showed that the Al Fatah is capable of flying 150 kilometres. However, these modelling results contrast with flight test data declared by Iraq, which state that the Al Fatah has flown as far as 161 kilometres with a different configuration from the one declared. As the models rely on input parameters declared by Iraq, a final conclusion cannot be developed until UNMOVIC has verified the Iraqi declaration. To this end, the international panel of experts recommends that UNMOVIC pursue efforts to verify the input parameters Iraq has provided in its declarations.

Casting Chamber

Casting chambers are used in the manufacture of solid propellant rocket motors. During the 1980s, Iraq procured two large casting chambers for the production of the BADR 2000 missile. As the BADR 2000 was a proscribed missile system under UNSC Resolution 687, these casting chambers were destroyed under UN supervision.

Iraq presently casts the Al Fatah and its other solid propellant systems, using existing smaller casting chambers at Al Mamoun Facility. Iraq has refurbished the ex-BADR 2000 casting chambers by repairing the destroyed sections and reducing the depth by 2 meters. Iraq has declared that it has utilized one of them to produce a handful of Al Fatah, and plans to utilize them to support the production of the Al Fatah, and other solid propellant systems.

The panel of experts reviewed and assessed the inherent capabilities of the refurbished casting chambers. The chambers, which now have a depth of 6 meters, and a diameter of 2 meters, are capable of supporting the production of solid propellant rocket motors with sufficient capacity to fly significantly more than 150 kilometres. For instance, the chambers would still be capable of supporting the production of the proscribed BADR 2000 first stage motor.

Al Rafah Liquid Engine Test Stand

Iraq has declared its construction of a new Liquid Propellant Test Stand at the Al Rafah facility. The stand is larger than the SA-2 test stand presently used at Al Rafah. It is also larger than the SCUD test stand destroyed under UN supervision. The expert panel reviewed the characteristics of the new test stand and concluded that it will be capable of testing liquid propellant engines exhibiting a thrust of 15 tons after completion, with one expert estimating that up to 30 tons force could be accommodated. (Note: The Al Samoud generates 3.5 tons of thrust). One expert also noted that each of the two large tanks collocated at the test stand has an estimated capacity to store 2.2 cubic meters of liquid fuel or oxidizer. This is about 3 times the amount used by the Al Samoud 2 missile.