What Next? IAEA Nuclear Inspections in Iraq

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY

October 2, 2002

What happened at the Vienna talks that ended in October?

Parties agreed on key points of practical arrangements to facilitate the resumption of inspections in Iraq. They issued a press statement and held a press conference after their two days of meetings. The official report on the talks is scheduled for submission to the UN Security Council, under whose authority inspections are conducted.

What is the IAEA's job?

• Under Security Council resolutions, UNMOVIC and the IAEA have distinct and different mandates. Although they have separate inspection teams, the two organizations work closely together, particularly in making use of UNMOVIC's logistical arrangements. UNMOVIC is responsible for the chemical, biological and missile files, while the IAEA is responsible for the nuclear file. The IAEA's work is carried out through its Iraq Action Team, which the Agency set up in April 1991 after the Gulf War. Throughout the 1990s, the Team successively uncovered, mapped, monitored, and neutralized Iraq's clandestine nuclear weapons programme.

• The IAEA Iraq Action Team is led by Jacques Baute, a French nuclear weapons scientist. It includes 18 experts on all stages of the nuclear fuel cycle as well as dual use technologies, import-export controls and nuclear smuggling.

• Up to 6 December 1998 - when IAEA personnel were withdrawn from Iraq out of concern for their safety - the Action Team carried out hundreds of inspections in Iraq. Since late 1998, the Team has been unable to conduct on-site nuclear inspections in Iraq. However, the IAEA has carried out nuclear safeguards inspections of limited scope, pursuant to a standing safeguards agreement with Iraq.

What's the timeframe for the resumption of inspections?

• No final decision has been taken. Preliminary information indicated that an advance team stood ready to go to Iraq under the timeline outlined in an informal paper that UNMOVIC circulated to the Security Council on 19 September.

• Regarding the Vienna talks starting 30 September 2002, the Iraqi delegation has been asked to deliver a backlog of semi-annual monitoring declarations required under Security Council resolutions. In the IAEA's case, these reports would focus on Iraq's nuclear activities and cover the period from the second half of 1998 to present.

What's the IAEA doing to prepare for the next inspections?

• Since December 1998, the IAEA Iraq Action Team has continued to track developments and analyze information in preparation for a resumption of nuclear inspections in Iraq, when directed by the Security Council. This is in addition to its extensive database of information from inspection and analysis during the 1990s. Without on-site inspections, the IAEA is unable to provide any assurance that Iraq has, or has not, re-embarked upon a nuclear weapons programme.

• The Action Team has drawn up a list of sites that it wants to inspect upon its return to Iraq. Other inspections, including unannounced inspections, also can be carried out as developments warrant.

• The Action Team stands ready to dispatch some of its members to Iraq once a decision on the resumption of inspections is taken. A key aim is to determine whether Iraq has re-started a nuclear programme, from the mining of raw materials to weapons development, in the period since December 1998.

What tools and methods do inspectors use?

• Some of the procedures and techniques include: unannounced inspections of known locations; unannounced inspections of previously un-inspected locations; examination of records, equipment, materials and products; sampling of materials and work surfaces; imagery analysis; and environmental sampling, including aerial and land-based radiation surveys, hydrological sampling; vegetation sampling; air sampling and deposition sampling.

• Environmental sampling has proven to be a potent tool for radiological analysis of materials. Inspectors survey areas and collect samples that are later analyzed in specially-equipped laboratories. Analysts use ultra-sensitive techniques, such as mass spectrometry, particle analysis, and low-level radiometric analysis. Samples can be taken from surfaces of equipment and buildings, as well as from the air, water, sediments, and vegetation. Analysis of samples can determine "nuclear fingerprints", and reveal indicators of past and current activities in locations handling nuclear materials, particularly those associated with uranium conversion, fabrication, and enrichment.

Where did Iraq's nuclear-weapons programme stand when inspections stopped in 1998?

• The IAEA had removed all known weapon-grade nuclear material, i.e. highly enriched uranium and plutonium. Additionally, it had taken custody of all known remaining uranium compounds; destroyed all known dedicated facilities and associated equipment; and monitored all known "dual-use" equipment that could be associated with nuclear-weapons development.