Transcript of Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
Russian Federation

Igor Ivanov Remarks on the
Rossia Television Channel's Mirror Program

Question: Igor Sergeyevich, as to the situation around Iraq, now you evidently are not most concerned about a postwar situation but rather by how to avoid war. Are you considering different scenarios?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: Our principal task now is to achieve compliance by all the parties with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441. We have achieved the unanimous adoption of this resolution. This is very important not only for the situation around Iraq, but also for the future of the UN Security Council and for the United Nations as a whole as the central international organization in tackling matters related to the safeguarding of international stability and security.

I repeat that it is our first task to achieve strict compliance by all with this resolution. This applies primarily to Iraq, which must fulfill the obligations arising from this and other resolutions. For, quite a number of resolutions had been passed earlier, and the most important thing now is to ensure the unhindered and effective performance by international inspectors of their mission.

It currently would be wrong to speculate whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or not. I want to recall that the inspectors are not starting work with a blank slate. Before December 1998 they worked in Iraq for almost eight years. Over this period they discovered a considerable amount of weapons which were subject to liquidation, and they liquidated them. Therefore the task of the inspectors is to carry out work and to discover, and if they do so then to liquidate weapons and to prevent their reproduction in Iraq.

But of course, in parallel we must figure out different variants: possible are variants of a disruption of the inspectors' work or, which can't be ruled out either, a force-based scenario in Iraq. Therefore we are also studying all of these variants because we must not be taken unawares in any situation.

Question: In exploring the possibilities, including a military scenario, are you in advance talking over with your Western colleagues some variants of cooperation not only for the case of the existence of Saddam Hussein's regime?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: Resolution 1441 has been adopted according to Chapter 7 of the Charter of the United Nations, which presupposes among other things a possible use of force if the resolution is breached, and so theoretically a variant of the use of force is possible. But in any case, as clearly arises from the resolution, and we had firmly insisted on this, such a decision can be taken only by the United Nations Security Council. Sometimes the question arises: who is to determine whether there has been a breach or not, whether it is a gross violation and what action should follow. Hans Blix, the executive chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission in Iraq, has stressed that he will not determine whether some or other occurrence has been a breach. He must objectively inform the UN Security Council of what has happened. And the UN Security Council alone must determine how serious this breach is and whether extreme measures need to be used, for example, the use of force, or other ways out of this situation are possible. This question must also be borne in mind.

As far as a military scenario is concerned, I want to once again note that we always explore different variants, including extreme and undesirable ones. Undesirable in the sense that any military action against Iraq may have very serious consequences which will extend far beyond Iraq itself. This theme cannot be reduced to Iraq alone and to the economic problem alone, for example, the price of oil. This is a significantly more serious problem which can affect the situation in the Persian Gulf and in the Middle East and encompass many questions of concern to all; among other things, it may stimulate radicalization within the Islamic world.

Question: Igor Sergeyevich, could you briefly formulate the stand of Russia on the Iraq question. Is this a defense of Saddam Hussein or a defense of civilized methods of resolving the problem within the United Nations, or a defense of the economic interests of Russia?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: The resolutions which were adopted had the clear purpose of preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, in this case - with reference to Iraq. This is the chief objective, which is today being solved by this resolution. There are also a number of other questions there. The task is to ensure that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction. And the second point is that this task should be achieved on the basis of the Charter of the United Nations and the rules of international law.

Question: Allow me to return to the question who will make the decision. Let us examine the following trivial example: Hans Blix was forced to wait at the gate to facility for two or three hours or on his jeep the four wheels have been punctured. Blix turns round, drives away and complains to the United Nations Security Council. How will the decision be made in this case: it is a provocation on the part of Saddam Husseim or it is an accident and then one more chance is given or nevertheless military action begins?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: The inspectors have an almost eight-year experience of activity in Iraq. Different situations arose, including some more complicated than a wheel puncture. By the way, in 1998 we were able to agree on such a delicate question as visiting presidential palaces and facilities.

That is, the UN Security Council must consider whether that is a hooligan action, a technical matter (for example, the watchman overslept or was unable to open the gate to the plant) or deliberate actions on the part of Iraqi authorities. The UN Security Council, after discussing these questions, will take a decision.

Question: This concerns the five permanent members of the UN Security Council?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: No, this will be decided by all the 15 members of the Security Council, including permanent and nonpermanent members. The decision must be adopted by a full Security Council.

Question: You have just returned from Paris where the meeting of the Russian-French Council for Security Cooperation took place. Were questions relating to the situation around Iraq discussed?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: I would like to stress that the Council for Security Cooperation has been established not only as an instrument for coordinating the efforts of Russia and France on topical issues, but also to jointly forecast a further development of the situation. The world is fast changing. Many problems arise today to which there are no ready-made solutions. It is therefore important that forecasts be made not only within the country, but also with the closest partners. France shares many of our approaches in international affairs. We have been cooperating with regard to Iraq, and ours were identical positions. And now too we have a complete mutual understanding how to implement this resolution.

At the same time, the French and I discussed different variants of the development of the situation in Iraq, around Iraq and in the region as a whole.

Question: How would you allocate the chances of a military solution of the Iraq problem and a peaceful one?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: Of course, I will give no percentages. But if we had doubted the possibility of a political solution, we would have acted differently. And once we act the way we do, and not just we alone, it means we believe that the potential for a political solution is not yet exhausted.

A question from a TV viewer: In the case of a sudden attack on Iraq what will happen to the Russian specialists who are employed on a working visa in Iraq? Will they be taken out of the country in time?

Foreign Minister Ivanov: This question is also being elaborated, and we have provision for special measures for the swift evacuation of our specialists, and they number about 600, in an emergency. This question has been elaborated with all the departments. I can assure you that the safety of our citizens in Iraq will not be endangered.

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