INTERVIEW WITH YURI FEDOTOV
DEPUTY MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

March 2, 2003

Dmitry Kiselyov: Iraq. There is no war thus far, although it is largely predetermined already. We have in our studio a Russian diplomat who is responsible at our Foreign Ministry for what is now happening in the UN and in the Security Council around the Iraq crisis.

Hello, Yuri Viktorovich. Is this load heavy now?

Yuri Fedotov: Good morning. Indeed, I do not remember that diplomatic contacts would have been so intensive. Take, for example, the last week. About the results we will learn in the coming days, in the coming weeks. So far the main result is that the hope is still there for the continuation of the process of the disarmament of Iraq through international inspections. These inspections are yielding results.

Dmitry Kiselyov: "Yielding results" - what do you mean? That after your statement, which was exactly the case, Saddam Hussein did after all decide to eliminate the Al-Samoud-2 missiles?

Yuri Fedotov: You see, after the inspections had begun Iraq was being reproached for cooperating in form, but not cooperating in content. Now work on content is beginning. The process of real disarmament is beginning, of the elimination of the types of weapons which Iraq should not have. It is the Al-Samoud-2 missiles, some other ammunition capable of carrying chemical weapons. Other types of prohibited materials have been discovered. So that we're witnessing noticeable progress, as the UNMOVIC chief, Hans Blix, declared recently.

Dmitry Kiselyov: While Russia is fighting in the UN, the Americans are giving numerous leaks to the effect that the Security Council is not deciding the fate of Iraq, but actually is now deciding its own fate: whether the Security Council will be, whether the UN will be - this is the most important thing which the United Nations has to decide. Either it will fall apart, or it will support the US.

Yuri Fedotov: Such talk does really exist. I myself read those articles. In my opinion, such a positioning of the question is not quite serious. Let us recall the past: Kosovo, other situations where actions had been carried out in circumvention of the UN, but then all the same they were coming to the Security Council and it was the Security Council that made decisions on how to get out of the dead-end situations.

Dmitry Kiselyov: On the one hand, Russia condemns what the Anglo-American alliance is doing, and on the other, Vladimir Putin says: "I haven't heard even from the US President that he wants to wage a war. The US President only wants to achieve the disarmament of Iraq by peaceful means." It turns out that the Russian President is covering for the US President. Here's what Putin says further: "The American side is making the Iraqi side more pliant towards cooperation with the UN inspectors." Actually Putin thanks George Bush for his pressure on Iraq.

Yuri Fedotov: The real situation is such that a split on Iraq is observable in the Security Council. But when there is a split, you can aggravate that split and lead matters to an exacerbation of the standoff, or you can look for points of contact, of rapprochement of the positions of different sides and help the partners who do not share your point of view find ways out of the situation which could help them also, if we are to call a spade a spade, save face. In our view, the fact that the Americans are building up their presence in the Gulf area, around Iraq is an important factor of pressure on Iraq, and so one of the important factors of Iraqi cooperation in the implementation of the Security Council resolutions.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Two years ago The New York Times wrote that Russia was facing a difficult task - what West it was to choose. Now the situation has changed. It seems that the West faces the choice of what Russia it wants to have in the future. For after a war in Iraq, after the destruction of the UN, God forbid that it should happen, Russia will be a different country.

Yuri Fedotov: First, I would like to hope that a war in Iraq does not happen. And the more so, I am confident that the UN will not fall apart - too many countries are interested in preserving this organization.

As to the role of Russia, we really have the chance, we have the opportunity, because we are in contact with all, we are the only country which is on speaking terms with the Americans and with the British, as well as with the Iraqi leadership. If we are to speak of Russia's possible role in the search of solutions, our role is unique. And on how effectively we are able to use the chance which fate has now given to us, the authority of our country in the international arena will depend. I am speaking of a peaceful scenario of the development of events.

In the case of other scenarios, however, certain levers are also likely to emerge for us, by which to get the transfer of even the most negative situation into the field of international law.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Still, the Russian Foreign Minister is speaking of the veto. (A video fragment of Igor Ivanov's remarks in the course of the visit to China: "Russia has the right of veto and, if required for international stability, Russia, of course, will use this right.") Do you believe in such a situation? May it really be required?

Yuri Fedotov: I can say one thing with absolute certainty: Russia treats negatively the draft resolution that was submitted by the US and Britain and which in essence is directed to winding down the inspections and starting a war. But there is still time left before the vote. There is still to be held the discussion of Blix's report on March 7 - an objective report, on the whole giving well-considered assessments of Iraqi cooperation with the UN. Then, evidently, the cosponsors of the resolution will still think ten times whether to put their draft to the vote or not, because they do not have support in the Security Council right now. I reckon that if there were a vote today, the most they would get is 4-5 votes - not more. This is not sufficient to adopt a resolution.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Bulgaria, Spain, Britain and the United States?

Yuri Fedotov: Probably. The other countries are hesitating. Moreover, even a new group has emerged - "the six not siding with anyone." And further tactical moves in the Security Council will depend on the position of this Six.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Please name this Six for all.

Yuri Fedotov: It is Pakistan, three African countries - Guinea, Cameroon and Angola - and two Latin American countries - Mexico and Chile.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Still, you said very cautiously: "I want to hope, very much want to hope that there is no war." But it is the practice to build forecasts in percentages. Your forecast in percentages? Your assessment: Will there be a war or not?

Yuri Fedotov: I never engaged in guessing, even less so with the use of percentages. I think there is a chance, a fairly solid chance, about ten percent out of one hundred that it will be possible to taxi out towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis.

Dmitry Kiselyov: Thanks very much indeed, Yuri Viktorovich. Our guest was Yuri Fedotov - the man who at the Foreign Ministry is now probably at the "hottest" place; the man who answers for what is happening in the UN.