Dictatorial Regimes Collapse Unaided

by Andrea di Robilant

LA STAMPA

SOURCE: Italian Foreign Ministry

August 9, 2002

Rome - "On the one hand there are America's war plans, and on the other Saddam Hussein's proclamations: we are now living through the phase in which both parties are lining up their flags," says Senator Alfredo Mantica (AN), Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs with responsibility for the Middle East. "But we still have a little time left to try to unblock the situation."

Q. How much time do you think, Senator Mantica?

A."I do not believe that war is all that close. It is certainly not a matter of days, and personally I do not believe that it is a matter of weeks, either. Elections to the US Congress are in November, and so I think that we have still some time ahead of us to try with in-depth political mediation."

Q. On what terms?

A."The Italian position starts on the basis of two points. The embargo imposed ten years ago to force Saddam Hussein to comply with the UN resolutions has obviously not achieved the intended results. At the same time, the West has unsuccessfully tried to encourage the forces in opposition to the Iraqi regime. The truth is that dictatorial regimes collapse unaided, and in Iraq this has not yet happened."

Q. How do you think we can "unblock" the situation?

A."We have to provide an incentive to lift the embargo in exchange for compliance with the UN resolutions, under which inspectors must be allowed in to monitor Saddam's activities."

Q. What do you mean by incentive?

A."For example, a promise to invest in reconstructing the infrastructure. Something that would enable Saddam Hussein to sort out his image problem at home."

Q. In other words a face-saving device? But that would leave Saddam in power. The United States is convinced that the present regime has to be toppled.

A."There is no doubt that the allies, which includes Italy, take a different approach to the Americans' and are more flexible. We are America's allies, and this needs to be restated. But an alliance is based on loyalty, not fealty. And all the allies have made it clear to the Americans that they are worried about the prospect of a war with Iraq. Even the United Kingdom, which usually lines up a priori with the Americans, wants a United Nations resolution to be adopted before any military action is taken. The war against terrorism is fine, but we also have to see the evidence."

Q. And what is Italy doing in order to bring about a political solution?

A."We are trying to find out what the other European Union countries are willing to do and then reason around the idea of lifting the embargo. We have to see whether there is any room for manoeuvre, working not only with the Europeans but also with the Arab world which, at the present time, is much more concerned about a possible war with Iraq than they are about with the Palestinian crisis, which it has basically learnt to live with."